Monday, January 3, 2011

Another 50g Card!

702 samples now. Won another 50g prizes. Maybe the tide is turning?

(Don't be fooled... a human being is really good at "seeing" patterns in complete randomness)

Must... flip... more... cards...

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold) CountPercentageBootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1 37953.99%1.88%
0.5 14120.09%1.52%
1 9413.39%1.28%
5 709.97%1.13%
20 162.28%0.56%
50 20.28%0.20%
200 00.00%NA
1000 00.00%NA
5000 00.00%NA

Pay attention to how the error estimates shrink over time. More samples = less uncertainty!

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 702
Current total prize money won: 972.4 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 38 s 52 c

I'lll be placing the raw data on its own page from now on. I didn't really want to make the main post page too long and heavy.

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