Wednesday, January 5, 2011

1000 gold fortune card!

902 samples now. I finally got an epic prize card, worth 1000 gold! After so many losing draws, I'll gladly take the second prize.

The 1000g card increased the fair value of the fortune card to a whopping... 2.5 gold or so. And people are still buying this card for 40g!

A little side note. The payout ratio of a typical US lottery is around 50%. That is, for a $1 lotto ticket, the fair price of the ticket is about 50 cents. The empirical payout ratio of [Mysterious Fortune Card] found so far (given the 40g street price) is 6.3%! Talk about getting rinsed.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 902
Current total prize money won: 2240.5 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 48 s 39 c

Prize (gold) CountPercentageBootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1 49054.32%1.66%
0.5 17519.40%1.32%
1 12413.75%1.14%
5 889.76%0.99%
20 222.44%0.51%
50 20.22%0.16%
200 00.00%NA
1000 10.11%0.11%
5000 00.00%NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

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