602 samples now. Finally got a prize greater than 20g... too bad it's only the 50g prize. It does raise the fair price estimate of the [Mysterious Fortune Card] by a bit though.
Cumulative stats summary:
| Prize (gold) | Count | Percentage | Bootstrap Error (1-sigma) |
| 0.1 | 325 | 53.99% | 2.02% |
| 0.5 | 119 | 19.77% | 1.62% |
| 1 | 82 | 13.62% | 1.39% |
| 5 | 60 | 9.97% | 1.22% |
| 20 | 15 | 2.49% | 0.63% |
| 50 | 1 | 0.17% | 0.17% |
| 200 | 0 | 0.00% | NA |
| 1000 | 0 | 0.00% | NA |
| 5000 | 0 | 0.00% | NA |
Pay attention to how the error estimates shrink over time. More samples = less uncertainty!
Here's a plot of the distribution:
Total Samples: 602
Current total prize money won: 824 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 36 s 88 c
The prices of [Mysterious Fortune Card] have come down a bit on my server, to somewhere between 30g and 40g. Having collected this much data, I'm pretty certain at this point that the cards are not worth that much. If I were to win the 5000g card on the next draw, it will only bring up the fair price to something around 9.7g. I would have to win the 5000g prize three times in a row to make the fair price about 30g. There's no way that is happening.
Here's the list of new data points:
| Date | Time | Item (linked) | Prize (g) | Date | Time | Item (linked) | Prize (g) | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:00:53 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:29 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:00:54 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:30 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:00:54 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:30 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:00:55 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:32 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:00:56 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:33 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:00:56 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:35 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:00:59 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:35 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:00 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:35 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:01 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:36 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:02 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:12:37 | [Fortune Card] | 20 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:04 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:08 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:05 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:08 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:05 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:09 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:07 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:10 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:01:07 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:11 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:05:57 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:12 | [Fortune Card] | 20 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:05:58 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:13 | [Fortune Card] | 50 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:05:59 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:14 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:00 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:16 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:01 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:16 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:02 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:17 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:03 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:19 | [Fortune Card] | 20 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:04 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:20 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:05 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:21 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:06 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:15:22 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:07 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:43 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:08 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:44 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:09 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:45 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:10 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:46 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:06:11 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:47 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:21 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:48 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:22 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:49 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:22 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:50 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:23 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:50 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:24 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:51 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:25 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:53 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:26 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:53 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:27 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:54 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:27 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:55 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:27 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:19:56 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:31 | [Fortune Card] | 20 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:13 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:33 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:14 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:41 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:15 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:42 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:16 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:09:43 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:17 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:12:24 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:18 | [Fortune Card] | 1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:12:25 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:19 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:12:26 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:20 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:12:27 | [Fortune Card] | 0.1 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:21 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 | |
| 2010/12/30 | 21:12:27 | [Fortune Card] | 5 | 2010/12/30 | 21:22:22 | [Fortune Card] | 0.5 |
While you're probably right in that winning the 5k one three times now is unlikely, it has (sortof) happened before.
ReplyDeleteI had a guy buy 5 of these off me and got 2 x 5000g cards.
What I'm trying to say here though is that while 600 cards is a large sample, it's not, at all, large enough to actually be as accurate as you think :).
I love the effort though and I really do hope you'll keep this up. Seeing these numbers with a 3-5000 card sample will probably start to make the data more accurate.