2002 samples now.
And yet, no 5000 gold card.
Imagine that the actual chance of getting the winning card is 1/1000. Then, the chance of me not drawing the grand prize in 2000 draws (assuming iid) is 13.52%. If the chance is 1/800, then that same percentage drops to 8.2%. I think I can now pretty safely claim that the chance of winning is smaller than 1 out of 800.
And yet, I can't stop gambling...
Cumulative stats summary:
Total Samples: 2002
Current total prize money won: 4761.6 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 37 s 84 c
| Prize (gold) | Count | Percentage | Bootstrap Error (1-sigma) |
| 0.1 | 1056 | 52.75% | 1.12% |
| 0.5 | 394 | 19.68% | 0.88% |
| 1 | 319 | 15.93% | 0.82% |
| 5 | 184 | 9.19% | 0.65% |
| 20 | 36 | 1.80% | 0.30% |
| 50 | 6 | 0.30% | 0.12% |
| 200 | 6 | 0.30% | 0.12% |
| 1000 | 1 | 0.05% | 0.05% |
| 5000 | 0 | 0.00% | NA |
Here's a plot of the distribution:
Raw data page is updated.
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