2102 samples now.

This is about the time where I start to hate the nature of random numbers. It turns out, the uncertainty of the estimate of expectation values (i.e., the mean) scales as 1/sqrt(N), where N is the number of samples one has observed. In other words, to reduce the uncertainty by a factor of two, one has to increase the number of observations by a factor of four.

Right now, we have a roughly 1% 1-sigma confidence on our sample. So, we know the odds of each prize to about 1% with a confidence of about 68%. To improve the uncertainty to 0.5%... it would take about 8000 flips total. That's about 6000 flips to go. Ouch.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 2102

Current total prize money won: 4871 g

Current estimated fair price: 2 g 31 s 73 c

Prize (gold) | Count | Percentage | Bootstrap Error (1-sigma) |

0.1 | 1110 | 52.81% | 1.09% |

0.5 | 418 | 19.89% | 0.87% |

1 | 331 | 15.75% | 0.80% |

5 | 192 | 9.13% | 0.63% |

20 | 38 | 1.81% | 0.29% |

50 | 6 | 0.29% | 0.12% |

200 | 6 | 0.29% | 0.12% |

1000 | 1 | 0.05% | 0.05% |

5000 | 0 | 0.00% | NA |

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.