Some good news for the bulls (in a market sense)

602 samples now. Finally got a prize greater than 20g... too bad it's only the 50g prize. It does raise the fair price estimate of the [Mysterious Fortune Card] by a bit though.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	325	53.99%	2.02%
0.5	119	19.77%	1.62%
1	82	13.62%	1.39%
5	60	9.97%	1.22%
20	15	2.49%	0.63%
50	1	0.17%	0.17%
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	0	0.00%	NA
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Pay attention to how the error estimates shrink over time. More samples = less uncertainty!

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 602
Current total prize money won: 824 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 36 s 88 c

The prices of [Mysterious Fortune Card] have come down a bit on my server, to somewhere between 30g and 40g. Having collected this much data, I'm pretty certain at this point that the cards are not worth that much. If I were to win the 5000g card on the next draw, it will only bring up the fair price to something around 9.7g. I would have to win the 5000g prize three times in a row to make the fair price about 30g. There's no way that is happening.


Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)		Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/30	21:00:53	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:12:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:54	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:12:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:54	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:12:30	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:00:55	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:12:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:56	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:12:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:00:56	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:12:35	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:12:35	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:01:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:12:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:01:01	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:12:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:01:02	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:12:37	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/30	21:01:04	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:15:08	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:01:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:01:05	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:15:09	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:01:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:01:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:11	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:05:57	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:15:12	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/30	21:05:58	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:15:13	[Fortune Card]	50
2010/12/30	21:05:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:14	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:06:00	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/30	21:15:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:01	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:02	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:15:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:06:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:19	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/30	21:06:04	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:15:20	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:15:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:07	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/30	21:19:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:45	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:06:10	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:11	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:19:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:49	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:09:22	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/30	21:19:50	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:23	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:19:50	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:24	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/30	21:19:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:53	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:09:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:19:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:19:55	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:09:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:19:56	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:31	[Fortune Card]	20		2010/12/30	21:22:13	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:09:33	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:22:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:41	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:22:15	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:42	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/30	21:22:16	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:09:43	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:22:17	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:12:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:22:18	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:12:25	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/30	21:22:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:12:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:22:20	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:12:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/30	21:22:21	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:12:27	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/30	21:22:22	[Fortune Card]	0.5

A Milestone Hit: 500+ draws

502 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	276	54.98%	2.20%
0.5	99	19.72%	1.78%
1	67	13.35%	1.52%
5	49	9.76%	1.33%
20	11	2.19%	0.65%
50	0	0.00%	NA
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	0	0.00%	NA
5000	0	0.00%	NA

I've added a column showing the bootstrap estimate of the uncertainties in the measurements so far. It's a 1-sigma error. In other words, the true probability of drawing a 0.1g card is in the interval 54.98% +/- 2.20% to 1-sigma (68%) certainty. 2-sigma certainty would be double that... 54.98% +/- 4.40% to 2-sigma (95%). It should make you appreciate how small this sample is. Also, keep in mind that this kind of analysis works only if the samples are independent and identically distributed, which is an implicit assumption in this endeavor.

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 502
Current total prize money won: 609.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 21 s 33 c


Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)		Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/29	20:32:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:09	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:42:37	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:10	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:42:39	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:41	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:43	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:44	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:13	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:42:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:46	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:25	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:35:58	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:46	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:35:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:47	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:00	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:02	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:45:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:02	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:50	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:07	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:45:55	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:36:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:32	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/29	20:36:10	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:11	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:12	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:36:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:35	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:37	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:39:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:37	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:39	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:19	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:20	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:23	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:24	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:48:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:22	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:39:29	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:51:22	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:39:30	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:51:23	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:31	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:51:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:32	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:51:25	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:42:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:26	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:42:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:51:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:42:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:28	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:42:35	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:51:29	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1

World of Warcraft is one stingy beast...

402 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	226	56.22%
0.5	77	19.15%
1	55	13.68%
5	34	8.46%
20	10	2.49%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 402
Current total prize money won: 486.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 20 s 92 c


Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)		Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/28	16:09:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:38:26	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:38:27	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/28	16:09:30	[Fortune Card]	20		2010/12/28	16:38:28	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/28	16:09:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:38:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:38:29	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/28	16:38:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:34	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/28	16:38:31	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:35	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:38:31	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:36	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/28	16:38:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:37	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/28	16:38:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/28	16:41:06	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/28	16:09:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:07	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:09:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:08	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:09:43	[Fortune Card]	20		2010/12/28	16:41:09	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:32:01	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:10	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:02	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/28	16:41:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:15	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:32:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:41:17	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:08	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/28	16:41:18	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:09	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/28	16:41:18	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:10	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/28	16:41:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:11	[Fortune Card]	20		2010/12/28	16:43:41	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:32:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:15	[Fortune Card]	20		2010/12/28	16:43:43	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:32:15	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:44	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:34:54	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/28	16:43:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:55	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/28	16:43:45	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:34:55	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/28	16:43:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:48	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:34:58	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:48	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:34:59	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/28	16:43:49	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:35:01	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/28	16:43:49	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:02	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:43:51	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:35:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:46:20	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:04	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/28	16:46:20	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:05	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/28	16:46:21	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:35:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:46:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:06	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/28	16:46:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:46:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:46:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:46:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:46:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/28	16:46:31	[Fortune Card]	5

More data points!

302 samples now. This set of draws were slightly better than the last set. Still, I've yet to see the winning ticket... or, for that matter, any prizes worth more than 20g :(

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	168	55.63%
0.5	60	19.87%
1	43	14.24%
5	25	8.28%
20	6	1.99%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 302
Current total prize money won: 334.8 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 10 s 86 c


Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)		Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/27	14:04:03	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/27	14:20:56	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:03	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/27	14:20:57	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:04:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:20:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:06	[Fortune Card]	20		2010/12/27	14:20:58	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:06	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/27	14:20:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:25:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:25:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:08	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/27	14:25:44	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/27	14:04:09	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/27	14:25:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:09	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/27	14:25:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:25:45	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:14:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:25:46	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/27	14:14:44	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/27	14:25:47	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/27	14:14:45	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/27	14:25:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:25:49	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:14:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:32:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:32:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:49	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/27	14:32:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:50	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:32:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:32:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:52	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:32:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:53	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/27	14:32:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:32:31	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:20:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/27	14:32:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:55	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/27	14:32:33	[Fortune Card]	0.1

More Warcraft data...

252 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	137	54.37%
0.5	50	19.84%
1	40	15.87%
5	21	8.33%
20	4	1.59%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 263.7 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 4 s 64 c

I'm getting quite discouraged by the results. Maybe I really am this unlucky...

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)		Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/26	20:52:34	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:21:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:35	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:21:55	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	20:52:36	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/26	21:21:55	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	20:52:36	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:21:56	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:21:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:21:57	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:52:39	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:21:58	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:52:40	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/26	21:21:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:22:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:22:01	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	20:59:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:27:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:27:06	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	20:59:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:27:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:27	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:27:07	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:59:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:27:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:29	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:27:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:30	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:27:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:30	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:27:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:27:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:32	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/26	21:27:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:36	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:31:55	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:05:37	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:31:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:05:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:31:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:31:58	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:05:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:31:58	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:32:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:32:01	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:41	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:32:02	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	21:05:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:32:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:42	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:32:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:50	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:39:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:52	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:39:02	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:09:52	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:39:02	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:09:52	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:39:03	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:09:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:39:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:39:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:39:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:39:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:10:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:39:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:10:01	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:39:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:42:37	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/26	21:42:38	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	21:15:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:42:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:11	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/26	21:42:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:42:40	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:15:12	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/26	21:42:40	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:15:13	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/26	21:42:40	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:15:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:42:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/26	21:42:41	[Fortune Card]	5

Data Release 3

152 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	84	55.26%
0.5	31	20.39%
1	22	14.47%
5	11	7.24%
20	4	2.63%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 180.9 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 19 s 1 c


As a side note, [Mysterious Fortune Card] goes for around 40g on the auction house on my server. The current fair price estimate of the card is nowhere near the street price. Of course, the data is still plagued by its small sample size... for example, if I draw the 5000g card on my next use, the fair price would jump to (180.9 + 5000) / (152 + 19) = just shy of 34g!

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/25	17:23:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:55	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:23:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:23:56	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/25	17:23:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:57	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:23:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:18	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:20	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:34:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:25	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:34:26	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/25	17:34:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:30	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:41:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:34	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:41:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:37	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:40	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:47:23	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/25	17:47:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:47:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:30	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:47:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:33	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:43	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:52:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:47	[Fortune Card]	0.5

Mysterious Fortune Card Data Update

Second data update is here. There are now 102 samples.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count
0.1	50
0.5	23
1	17
5	9
20	3
50	0
200	0
1000	0
5000	0

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 138.5 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 35 s 78 c


Here's the raw data:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/24	20:37:35	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:37:37	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:37:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:39	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:37:41	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:37:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:45	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:46:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:27	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	20:46:28	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	20:46:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:46:34	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:46:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:46:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:33	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:34	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:56:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:56:36	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	20:56:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	21:29:40	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	21:29:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:43	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	21:29:44	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	21:29:45	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/24	21:29:46	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	21:29:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:51	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/25	00:53:37	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	00:53:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:39	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	00:53:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:41	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	00:53:42	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	00:53:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:46	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	00:53:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1