2102 samples now.
This is about the time where I start to hate the nature of random numbers. It turns out, the uncertainty of the estimate of expectation values (i.e., the mean) scales as 1/sqrt(N), where N is the number of samples one has observed. In other words, to reduce the uncertainty by a factor of two, one has to increase the number of observations by a factor of four.
Right now, we have a roughly 1% 1-sigma confidence on our sample. So, we know the odds of each prize to about 1% with a confidence of about 68%. To improve the uncertainty to 0.5%... it would take about 8000 flips total. That's about 6000 flips to go. Ouch.
Cumulative stats summary:
Total Samples: 2102
Current total prize money won: 4871 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 31 s 73 c
|Prize (gold)||Count||Percentage||Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)|
Here's a plot of the distribution:
Raw data page is updated.