Tuesday, January 18, 2011

More Flips!

1602 samples now.

Lately, I've been wondering whether there are any factors that can affect the outcome of a flip. Is every flip completely fair and independent of each other? Or does the outcome of a flip depend on, say, your location, level, gear, stats, race, etc...? Those potential sources of skew are not too worrisome though. I've been using the same character at the same level, location, and more or less the same gear.

What does worry me, though, is the potential that the outcome depends on the state of my server. Maybe there's a limit on how many 5000g that can be in game at the same time? That sort of limits, if there is one, is totally out of my control. What can I do...

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1602
Current total prize money won: 4345.7 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 71 s 27 c

Prize (gold) CountPercentageBootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1 84752.87%1.24%
0.5 31219.48%0.98%
1 24515.29%0.90%
5 1569.74%0.74%
20 291.81%0.33%
50 60.37%0.15%
200 60.37%0.15%
1000 10.06%0.06%
5000 00.00%NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.


  1. How can the price be fair if you factor in the material cost? These are almost a paradox to sell: ppl consider them a scam when the pay xx gold and mostly only get silver back, yet the manufacturing cost of the cards warrant such a price.

    I had one guy call me a scammer, and he warned ppl not to buy my cards (im the onyl one selling them on my server).

    One strange thing, I was able to link to the 5000g card in /2 yesterday (via a macro) but today it didnt work - the link in /2 was just white text... Any ideas why?

    Anyway nice work on the data =)

  2. You can only link an item if it has been seen on server since the last server restart.

    When people start commenting on it being a scam or a lie, I just try and show that epic cards exist, and say that it's called gambling for a reason.