Wednesday, February 16, 2011

Patch 4.0.6, New Rules to Play By?

2202 samples now.

Been very busy lately... real life can be a bitch.

In a brighter (!?) news, we finally have the arrival of patch 4.0.6. This is the first time that I've taken data since the patch. I'm really hoping that they didn't screw around with the odds of the prize cards. I have pretty much no data as of now (only 100 new data points) to make any inferences, so I'm just going to have to keep on doing what I've been doing.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 2202
Current total prize money won: 5961.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 70 s 71 c

Noticed how winning another 1000g card only increased the fair value by 40 silver? The end is closer...

Prize (gold) CountPercentageBootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1 117153.18%1.06%
0.5 43419.71%0.85%
1 34715.76%0.78%
5 1968.90%0.61%
20 401.82%0.29%
50 60.27%0.11%
200 60.27%0.11%
1000 20.09%0.06%
5000 00.00%NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.


  1. While I agree that the fair value seems to be getting more and more static, saying the end is near might be a bit soon. The percentages won't really be all that sure until we've had at least one of each possible outcome (in other words, till the 5000 drops), and preferably more than one. Of course the percentages probably won't change that much when that happens, but still as of now we simply don't have a full data set yet, so I'd say it's too soon to draw conclusions. Getting there though :)

    On a slightly related note, I haven't had any response to the addon I posted in the comments section of the previous post. You've probably been busy and all that, and I respect that, but I wonder if you've had a chance to try it out yet? If so, was it of any use to you?

  2. Sorry... I haven't had the chance to try out your addon yet. I'll give it a go this weekend though. I really appreciate your help MaienM!