A Milestone Hit: 500+ draws

502 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	276	54.98%	2.20%
0.5	99	19.72%	1.78%
1	67	13.35%	1.52%
5	49	9.76%	1.33%
20	11	2.19%	0.65%
50	0	0.00%	NA
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	0	0.00%	NA
5000	0	0.00%	NA

I've added a column showing the bootstrap estimate of the uncertainties in the measurements so far. It's a 1-sigma error. In other words, the true probability of drawing a 0.1g card is in the interval 54.98% +/- 2.20% to 1-sigma (68%) certainty. 2-sigma certainty would be double that... 54.98% +/- 4.40% to 2-sigma (95%). It should make you appreciate how small this sample is. Also, keep in mind that this kind of analysis works only if the samples are independent and identically distributed, which is an implicit assumption in this endeavor.

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 502
Current total prize money won: 609.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 21 s 33 c


Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)		Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/29	20:32:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:09	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:42:37	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:10	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:42:39	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:41	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:43	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:44	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:13	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:42:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:46	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:42:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:25	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:35:58	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:46	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:35:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:47	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:00	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:02	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:45:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:02	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:45:50	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:07	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:45:55	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:45:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:36:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:32	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/29	20:36:10	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:11	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:12	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:36:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:35	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:37	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:39:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:37	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:39	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:19	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:20	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:48:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:23	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:48:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:24	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:48:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:48:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:22	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:39:29	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:51:22	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:39:30	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:51:23	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:31	[Fortune Card]	5		2010/12/29	20:51:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:32	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:51:25	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:42:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:26	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:42:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5		2010/12/29	20:51:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:42:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:28	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:42:35	[Fortune Card]	1		2010/12/29	20:51:29	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1		2010/12/29	20:51:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1