Saturday, December 25, 2010

Data Release 3

152 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold) CountPercentage
0.1 8455.26%
0.5 3120.39%
1 2214.47%
5 117.24%
20 42.63%
50 00.00%
200 00.00%
1000 00.00%
5000 00.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 180.9 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 19 s 1 c

As a side note, [Mysterious Fortune Card] goes for around 40g on the auction house on my server. The current fair price estimate of the card is nowhere near the street price. Of course, the data is still plagued by its small sample size... for example, if I draw the 5000g card on my next use, the fair price would jump to (180.9 + 5000) / (152 + 19) = just shy of 34g!

Here's the list of new data points:
DateTimeItem (linked)Prize (g)
2010/12/2517:23:53[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:23:54[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:23:55[Fortune Card]0.5
2010/12/2517:23:56[Fortune Card]0.5
2010/12/2517:23:56[Fortune Card]5
2010/12/2517:23:57[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:23:57[Fortune Card]0.5
2010/12/2517:23:57[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:23:59[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:23:59[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:34:18[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:34:19[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:34:19[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:34:20[Fortune Card]0.5
2010/12/2517:34:21[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:34:22[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:34:24[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:34:25[Fortune Card]1
2010/12/2517:34:26[Fortune Card]5
2010/12/2517:34:28[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:29[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:30[Fortune Card]1
2010/12/2517:41:31[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:32[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:34[Fortune Card]0.5
2010/12/2517:41:34[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:36[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:36[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:37[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:41:40[Fortune Card]1
2010/12/2517:47:23[Fortune Card]20
2010/12/2517:47:24[Fortune Card]0.5
2010/12/2517:47:26[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:47:27[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:47:28[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:47:29[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:47:30[Fortune Card]0.5
2010/12/2517:47:31[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:47:32[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:47:33[Fortune Card]1
2010/12/2517:52:38[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:38[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:40[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:40[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:42[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:43[Fortune Card]1
2010/12/2517:52:44[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:45[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:46[Fortune Card]0.1
2010/12/2517:52:47[Fortune Card]0.5

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