Monday, February 21, 2011

Data keeps flowing in

2402 samples now.

First, I want to thank one reader, MaienM, for making a wonderful little AddOn that records the time and ItemID of my flips automatically. It's a really handy tool that makes my data gathering a lot smoother and less tiring. Thanks MaienM!

As for the data, I think I'm at a point where I have enough data to do a little more detailed analysis. I didn't want to get into too much analysis there were so few data points, as it would have been pretty much useless. I'm mostly just curious to see if some of the assumptions that we all make, like the independence of each flip, are actually supported by the data so far. Let's see what I can dig up in the next few days.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 2402
Current total prize money won: 6155.5 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 56 s 27 c

Prize (gold) CountPercentageBootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1 127553.08%1.01%
0.5 47619.82%0.81%
1 38516.03%0.75%
5 2098.70%0.58%
20 431.79%0.27%
50 60.25%0.10%
200 60.25%0.10%
1000 20.08%0.06%
5000 00.00%NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.


  1. I've done over 8000 flips and just recently posted the results and some of my inferences. See the data here:

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