World of Warcraft Fortunes

Data keeps flowing in

2011-02-21T12:29:00.000-08:00

2402 samples now.

First, I want to thank one reader, MaienM, for making a wonderful little AddOn that records the time and ItemID of my flips automatically. It's a really handy tool that makes my data gathering a lot smoother and less tiring. Thanks MaienM!

As for the data, I think I'm at a point where I have enough data to do a little more detailed analysis. I didn't want to get into too much analysis there were so few data points, as it would have been pretty much useless. I'm mostly just curious to see if some of the assumptions that we all make, like the independence of each flip, are actually supported by the data so far. Let's see what I can dig up in the next few days.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 2402
Current total prize money won: 6155.5 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 56 s 27 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	1275	53.08%	1.01%
0.5	476	19.82%	0.81%
1	385	16.03%	0.75%
5	209	8.70%	0.58%
20	43	1.79%	0.27%
50	6	0.25%	0.10%
200	6	0.25%	0.10%
1000	2	0.08%	0.06%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Patch 4.0.6, New Rules to Play By?

2011-02-16T19:46:00.000-08:00

2202 samples now.

Been very busy lately... real life can be a bitch.

In a brighter (!?) news, we finally have the arrival of patch 4.0.6. This is the first time that I've taken data since the patch. I'm really hoping that they didn't screw around with the odds of the prize cards. I have pretty much no data as of now (only 100 new data points) to make any inferences, so I'm just going to have to keep on doing what I've been doing.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 2202
Current total prize money won: 5961.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 70 s 71 c

Noticed how winning another 1000g card only increased the fair value by 40 silver? The end is closer...

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	1171	53.18%	1.06%
0.5	434	19.71%	0.85%
1	347	15.76%	0.78%
5	196	8.90%	0.61%
20	40	1.82%	0.29%
50	6	0.27%	0.11%
200	6	0.27%	0.11%
1000	2	0.09%	0.06%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

2100+ Flips, Anger at Sqrt(N)

2011-01-30T19:42:00.000-08:00

2102 samples now.

This is about the time where I start to hate the nature of random numbers. It turns out, the uncertainty of the estimate of expectation values (i.e., the mean) scales as 1/sqrt(N), where N is the number of samples one has observed. In other words, to reduce the uncertainty by a factor of two, one has to increase the number of observations by a factor of four.

Right now, we have a roughly 1% 1-sigma confidence on our sample. So, we know the odds of each prize to about 1% with a confidence of about 68%. To improve the uncertainty to 0.5%... it would take about 8000 flips total. That's about 6000 flips to go. Ouch.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 2102
Current total prize money won: 4871 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 31 s 73 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	1110	52.81%	1.09%
0.5	418	19.89%	0.87%
1	331	15.75%	0.80%
5	192	9.13%	0.63%
20	38	1.81%	0.29%
50	6	0.29%	0.12%
200	6	0.29%	0.12%
1000	1	0.05%	0.05%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Another milestone: 2000+ flips

2011-01-25T20:34:00.000-08:00

2002 samples now.

And yet, no 5000 gold card.

Imagine that the actual chance of getting the winning card is 1/1000. Then, the chance of me not drawing the grand prize in 2000 draws (assuming iid) is 13.52%. If the chance is 1/800, then that same percentage drops to 8.2%. I think I can now pretty safely claim that the chance of winning is smaller than 1 out of 800.

And yet, I can't stop gambling...

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 2002
Current total prize money won: 4761.6 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 37 s 84 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	1056	52.75%	1.12%
0.5	394	19.68%	0.88%
1	319	15.93%	0.82%
5	184	9.19%	0.65%
20	36	1.80%	0.30%
50	6	0.30%	0.12%
200	6	0.30%	0.12%
1000	1	0.05%	0.05%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Gambling Some More

2011-01-22T23:23:00.000-08:00

1802 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1802
Current total prize money won: 4571 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 53 s 68 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	953	52.89%	1.18%
0.5	356	19.76%	0.94%
1	278	15.43%	0.85%
5	168	9.32%	0.68%
20	34	1.89%	0.32%
50	6	0.33%	0.14%
200	6	0.33%	0.14%
1000	1	0.06%	0.06%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

More Flips!

2011-01-18T18:54:00.000-08:00

1602 samples now.

Lately, I've been wondering whether there are any factors that can affect the outcome of a flip. Is every flip completely fair and independent of each other? Or does the outcome of a flip depend on, say, your location, level, gear, stats, race, etc...? Those potential sources of skew are not too worrisome though. I've been using the same character at the same level, location, and more or less the same gear.

What does worry me, though, is the potential that the outcome depends on the state of my server. Maybe there's a limit on how many 5000g that can be in game at the same time? That sort of limits, if there is one, is totally out of my control. What can I do...

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1602
Current total prize money won: 4345.7 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 71 s 27 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	847	52.87%	1.24%
0.5	312	19.48%	0.98%
1	245	15.29%	0.90%
5	156	9.74%	0.74%
20	29	1.81%	0.33%
50	6	0.37%	0.15%
200	6	0.37%	0.15%
1000	1	0.06%	0.06%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Quick Update

2011-01-16T16:10:00.000-08:00

1502 samples now.

I'm somewhat surprised by the fact that I haven't flipped a single 5000 gold prize yet. But, life goes on. What I am not surprised about is the fact that the cards are still selling way above their estimated fair value. Gambling is in our blood.

On a totally different note... GO BEARS! WOOT!

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1502
Current total prize money won: 4019.6 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 67 s 62 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	796	53.00%	1.33%
0.5	294	19.57%	1.05%
1	228	15.18%	0.96%
5	145	9.65%	0.79%
20	27	1.80%	0.35%
50	6	0.40%	0.14%
200	5	0.33%	0.16%
1000	1	0.07%	0.07%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Quick Data Update

2011-01-15T19:35:00.000-08:00

1402 samples now.

Work is exhausting...

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1402
Current total prize money won: 3803.6 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 71 s 30 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	746	53.21%	1.33%
0.5	272	19.40%	1.05%
1	213	15.19%	0.96%
5	136	9.70%	0.79%
20	25	1.78%	0.35%
50	4	0.29%	0.14%
200	5	0.36%	0.16%
1000	1	0.07%	0.07%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Cataclysm Bubble Crash?

2011-01-11T20:05:00.000-08:00

1302 samples now.

I've noticed that my server's economy has taken a hit as of late. Herbs that used to see for 7g+ are now selling for a little over 4g. The Mysterious Fortune Cards are now selling for somewhere south of 30g and at times are near 20g each. Worse yet, my primary money maker, [Inferno Ink] price is also under pressure. Has the Cataclysm bubble burst?

Of course, I'm only looking at a small subset of the overall server economy. There may well be some flavor of the month that is selling like hot cake...

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1302
Current total prize money won: 3495.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 68 s 44 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	696	53.46%	1.38%
0.5	249	19.12%	1.09%
1	196	15.05%	0.99%
5	129	9.91%	0.83%
20	23	1.77%	0.36%
50	4	0.31%	0.15%
200	4	0.31%	0.15%
1000	1	0.08%	0.08%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Another quick data update

2011-01-09T18:43:00.000-08:00

1202 samples now. Gods of Warcraft were generous tonight. Three 200 gold cards. Woot!

Now, if I could just win the grand prize... grrrr...

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1202
Current total prize money won: 3387.6 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 81 s 83 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	646	53.74%	1.44%
0.5	228	18.97%	1.13%
1	179	14.89%	1.03%
5	118	9.82%	0.86%
20	22	1.83%	0.39%
50	4	0.33%	0.17%
200	4	0.33%	0.17%
1000	1	0.08%	0.08%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

Data update

2011-01-08T22:52:00.000-08:00

1102 samples now. Another day, another new prize. This time the 200 gold card. I'm sleepy... so I'll put some more thoughts into the data another day.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 1102
Current total prize money won: 2709.9 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 45 s 91 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	599	54.36%	1.50%
0.5	210	19.06%	1.18%
1	155	14.07%	1.05%
5	110	9.98%	0.91%
20	22	2.00%	0.42%
50	4	0.36%	0.18%
200	1	0.09%	0.09%
1000	1	0.09%	0.09%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

1000 gold fortune card!

2011-01-05T18:36:00.000-08:00

902 samples now. I finally got an epic prize card, worth 1000 gold! After so many losing draws, I'll gladly take the second prize.

The 1000g card increased the fair value of the fortune card to a whopping... 2.5 gold or so. And people are still buying this card for 40g!

A little side note. The payout ratio of a typical US lottery is around 50%. That is, for a $1 lotto ticket, the fair price of the ticket is about 50 cents. The empirical payout ratio of [Mysterious Fortune Card] found so far (given the 40g street price) is 6.3%! Talk about getting rinsed.

Cumulative stats summary:

Total Samples: 902
Current total prize money won: 2240.5 g
Current estimated fair price: 2 g 48 s 39 c

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	490	54.32%	1.66%
0.5	175	19.40%	1.32%
1	124	13.75%	1.14%
5	88	9.76%	0.99%
20	22	2.44%	0.51%
50	2	0.22%	0.16%
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	1	0.11%	0.11%
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Raw data page is updated.

More data

2011-01-04T19:16:00.000-08:00

802 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	434	54.11%	1.77%
0.5	158	19.70%	1.40%
1	109	13.59%	1.21%
5	81	10.10%	1.06%
20	18	2.24%	0.53%
50	2	0.25%	0.18%
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	0	0.00%	NA
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 802
Current total prize money won: 1096.4 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 36 s 71 c

Raw data page is updated.

Another 50g Card!

2011-01-03T18:13:00.000-08:00

702 samples now. Won another 50g prizes. Maybe the tide is turning?

(Don't be fooled... a human being is really good at "seeing" patterns in complete randomness)

Must... flip... more... cards...

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	379	53.99%	1.88%
0.5	141	20.09%	1.52%
1	94	13.39%	1.28%
5	70	9.97%	1.13%
20	16	2.28%	0.56%
50	2	0.28%	0.20%
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	0	0.00%	NA
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Pay attention to how the error estimates shrink over time. More samples = less uncertainty!

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 702
Current total prize money won: 972.4 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 38 s 52 c

I'lll be placing the raw data on its own page from now on. I didn't really want to make the main post page too long and heavy.

Some good news for the bulls (in a market sense)

2010-12-30T18:58:00.000-08:00

602 samples now. Finally got a prize greater than 20g... too bad it's only the 50g prize. It does raise the fair price estimate of the [Mysterious Fortune Card] by a bit though.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	325	53.99%	2.02%
0.5	119	19.77%	1.62%
1	82	13.62%	1.39%
5	60	9.97%	1.22%
20	15	2.49%	0.63%
50	1	0.17%	0.17%
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	0	0.00%	NA
5000	0	0.00%	NA

Pay attention to how the error estimates shrink over time. More samples = less uncertainty!

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 602
Current total prize money won: 824 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 36 s 88 c

The prices of [Mysterious Fortune Card] have come down a bit on my server, to somewhere between 30g and 40g. Having collected this much data, I'm pretty certain at this point that the cards are not worth that much. If I were to win the 5000g card on the next draw, it will only bring up the fair price to something around 9.7g. I would have to win the 5000g prize three times in a row to make the fair price about 30g. There's no way that is happening.

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)	Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/30	21:00:53	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:12:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:54	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:12:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:54	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:12:30	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:00:55	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:12:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:56	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:12:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:00:56	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:12:35	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:00:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:12:35	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:01:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:12:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:01:01	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:12:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:01:02	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:12:37	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/30	21:01:04	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:15:08	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:01:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:01:05	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:15:09	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:01:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:01:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:11	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:05:57	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:15:12	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/30	21:05:58	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:15:13	[Fortune Card]	50
2010/12/30	21:05:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:14	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:06:00	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/30	21:15:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:01	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:02	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:15:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:06:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:19	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/30	21:06:04	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:15:20	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:15:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:07	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/30	21:19:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:45	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:06:10	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:06:11	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:19:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:49	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:09:22	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/30	21:19:50	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:23	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:19:50	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:24	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/30	21:19:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:53	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:09:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:19:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:19:55	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:09:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:19:56	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:31	[Fortune Card]	20	2010/12/30	21:22:13	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/30	21:09:33	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:22:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:41	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:22:15	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:09:42	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/30	21:22:16	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:09:43	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:22:17	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:12:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:22:18	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/30	21:12:25	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/30	21:22:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/30	21:12:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:22:20	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:12:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/30	21:22:21	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/30	21:12:27	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/30	21:22:22	[Fortune Card]	0.5

A Milestone Hit: 500+ draws

2010-12-29T18:24:00.000-08:00

502 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage	Bootstrap Error (1-sigma)
0.1	276	54.98%	2.20%
0.5	99	19.72%	1.78%
1	67	13.35%	1.52%
5	49	9.76%	1.33%
20	11	2.19%	0.65%
50	0	0.00%	NA
200	0	0.00%	NA
1000	0	0.00%	NA
5000	0	0.00%	NA

I've added a column showing the bootstrap estimate of the uncertainties in the measurements so far. It's a 1-sigma error. In other words, the true probability of drawing a 0.1g card is in the interval 54.98% +/- 2.20% to 1-sigma (68%) certainty. 2-sigma certainty would be double that... 54.98% +/- 4.40% to 2-sigma (95%). It should make you appreciate how small this sample is. Also, keep in mind that this kind of analysis works only if the samples are independent and identically distributed, which is an implicit assumption in this endeavor.

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 502
Current total prize money won: 609.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 21 s 33 c

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)	Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/29	20:32:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:09	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/29	20:42:37	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:10	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/29	20:42:39	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:42:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:42:41	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:42:43	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:32:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:42:44	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:13	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:42:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:42:46	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:42:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:25	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:45:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:32:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:35:58	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:45:46	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:35:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:47	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:00	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:45:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:02	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:45:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:02	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:45:50	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:07	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/29	20:45:55	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:36:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:45:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:36:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:48:32	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/29	20:36:10	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:48:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:11	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:48:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:36:12	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:48:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:36:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:48:35	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:48:37	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:39:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:48:37	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:17	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:48:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:48:39	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:19	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:48:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:20	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:48:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:48:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:23	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:48:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:24	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/29	20:48:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:48:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:51:22	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:39:29	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/29	20:51:22	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:39:30	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:51:23	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:39:31	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/29	20:51:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/29	20:39:32	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:51:25	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:42:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:51:26	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/29	20:42:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/29	20:51:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:42:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:51:28	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/29	20:42:35	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/29	20:51:29	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/29	20:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/29	20:51:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1

World of Warcraft is one stingy beast...

2010-12-28T15:03:00.000-08:00

402 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	226	56.22%
0.5	77	19.15%
1	55	13.68%
5	34	8.46%
20	10	2.49%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 402
Current total prize money won: 486.1 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 20 s 92 c

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)	Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/28	16:09:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:38:26	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:38:27	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/28	16:09:30	[Fortune Card]	20	2010/12/28	16:38:28	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/28	16:09:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:38:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:38:29	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/28	16:38:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:34	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/28	16:38:31	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:35	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:38:31	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:09:36	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/28	16:38:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:37	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/28	16:38:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/28	16:41:06	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/28	16:09:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:07	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:09:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:09:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:08	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:09:43	[Fortune Card]	20	2010/12/28	16:41:09	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:32:01	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:10	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:02	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/28	16:41:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:15	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:32:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:16	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:41:17	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:08	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/28	16:41:18	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:09	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/28	16:41:18	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:10	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/28	16:41:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:11	[Fortune Card]	20	2010/12/28	16:43:41	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:32:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:32:15	[Fortune Card]	20	2010/12/28	16:43:43	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:32:15	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:44	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:34:54	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/28	16:43:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:55	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/28	16:43:45	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:34:55	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/28	16:43:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:34:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:48	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:34:58	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:48	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/28	16:34:59	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/28	16:43:49	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:35:01	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/28	16:43:49	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:02	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:43:51	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:35:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:46:20	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:04	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/28	16:46:20	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:05	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/28	16:46:21	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/28	16:35:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:46:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:35:06	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/28	16:46:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:46:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:46:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:46:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:46:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/28	16:38:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/28	16:46:31	[Fortune Card]	5

More data points!

2010-12-27T13:32:00.000-08:00

302 samples now. This set of draws were slightly better than the last set. Still, I've yet to see the winning ticket... or, for that matter, any prizes worth more than 20g :(

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	168	55.63%
0.5	60	19.87%
1	43	14.24%
5	25	8.28%
20	6	1.99%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Total Samples: 302
Current total prize money won: 334.8 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 10 s 86 c

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)	Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/27	14:04:03	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/27	14:20:56	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:03	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/27	14:20:57	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:04:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:20:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:06	[Fortune Card]	20	2010/12/27	14:20:58	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:06	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/27	14:20:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:25:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:25:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:08	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/27	14:25:44	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/27	14:04:09	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/27	14:25:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:04:09	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/27	14:25:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:25:45	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:14:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:25:46	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/27	14:14:44	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/27	14:25:47	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/27	14:14:45	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/27	14:25:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:25:49	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:14:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:32:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:32:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:49	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/27	14:32:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:50	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:32:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:14:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:32:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:52	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:32:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:53	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/27	14:32:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:32:31	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/27	14:20:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/27	14:32:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/27	14:20:55	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/27	14:32:33	[Fortune Card]	0.1

More Warcraft data...

2010-12-26T21:25:00.000-08:00

252 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	137	54.37%
0.5	50	19.84%
1	40	15.87%
5	21	8.33%
20	4	1.59%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 263.7 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 4 s 64 c

I'm getting quite discouraged by the results. Maybe I really am this unlucky...

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)	Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/26	20:52:34	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:21:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:35	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:21:55	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	20:52:36	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/26	21:21:55	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	20:52:36	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:21:56	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:21:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:21:57	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:52:39	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:21:58	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:52:40	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/26	21:21:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:22:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:52:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:22:01	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	20:59:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:27:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:27:06	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	20:59:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:27:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:27	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:27:07	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	20:59:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:27:08	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:29	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:27:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:30	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:27:09	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:30	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:27:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:27:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	20:59:32	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/26	21:27:13	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:36	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:31:55	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:05:37	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:31:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:05:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:31:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:31:58	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:05:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:31:58	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:32:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:32:01	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:41	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:32:02	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	21:05:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:32:03	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:05:42	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:32:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:50	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:39:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:52	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:39:02	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:09:52	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:39:02	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:09:52	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:39:03	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:09:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:39:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:39:04	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:39:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:09:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:39:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:10:00	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:39:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:10:01	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:39:07	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:42:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:42:37	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:15:10	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/26	21:42:38	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/26	21:15:11	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:42:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:11	[Fortune Card]	1	2010/12/26	21:42:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:12	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:42:40	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:15:12	[Fortune Card]	5	2010/12/26	21:42:40	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/26	21:15:13	[Fortune Card]	0.5	2010/12/26	21:42:40	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/26	21:15:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:42:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/26	21:15:14	[Fortune Card]	0.1	2010/12/26	21:42:41	[Fortune Card]	5

Data Release 3

2010-12-25T23:33:00.000-08:00

152 samples now.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count	Percentage
0.1	84	55.26%
0.5	31	20.39%
1	22	14.47%
5	11	7.24%
20	4	2.63%
50	0	0.00%
200	0	0.00%
1000	0	0.00%
5000	0	0.00%

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 180.9 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 19 s 1 c

As a side note, [Mysterious Fortune Card] goes for around 40g on the auction house on my server. The current fair price estimate of the card is nowhere near the street price. Of course, the data is still plagued by its small sample size... for example, if I draw the 5000g card on my next use, the fair price would jump to (180.9 + 5000) / (152 + 19) = just shy of 34g!

Here's the list of new data points:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/25	17:23:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:55	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:23:56	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:23:56	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/25	17:23:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:57	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:23:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:23:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:18	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:19	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:20	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:34:21	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:22	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:34:25	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:34:26	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/25	17:34:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:30	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:41:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:34	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:41:34	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:37	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:41:40	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:47:23	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/25	17:47:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:47:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:30	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	17:47:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:47:33	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:43	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	17:52:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:46	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	17:52:47	[Fortune Card]	0.5

Mysterious Fortune Card Data Update

2010-12-25T13:37:00.000-08:00

Second data update is here. There are now 102 samples.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count
0.1	50
0.5	23
1	17
5	9
20	3
50	0
200	0
1000	0
5000	0

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 138.5 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 35 s 78 c

Here's the raw data:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/24	20:37:35	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:37:37	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:37:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:39	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:39	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:37:41	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:37:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:43	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:37:45	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:46:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:27	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	20:46:28	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	20:46:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:46:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:46:34	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:46:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:46:36	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:31	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:32	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:33	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	20:56:34	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	20:56:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	20:56:36	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	20:56:38	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	21:29:40	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	21:29:41	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:42	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:43	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	21:29:44	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	21:29:45	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/24	21:29:46	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/24	21:29:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:48	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	21:29:51	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/25	00:53:37	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	00:53:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:39	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	00:53:40	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:41	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	00:53:42	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/25	00:53:44	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:45	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/25	00:53:46	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/25	00:53:47	[Fortune Card]	0.1

Data Release 1

2010-12-24T12:09:00.000-08:00

One thing I know for sure now: winning tickets don't land on your hands so easily.

Cumulative stats summary:

Prize (gold)	Count
0.1	25
0.5	14
1	7
5	4
20	2
50	0
200	0
1000	0
5000	0

Here's a plot of the distribution:

Current total prize money won: 76.5 g
Current estimated fair price: 1 g 47 s 12 c

Of course, the results so far has to be taken with a huge grain of salt. With only 52 samples, it's far too early to draw any conclusions...

By the way, the fortunes written on the cards are pretty amusing. You should check them out when you have som time to waste!

Here's the raw data:

Date	Time	Item (linked)	Prize (g)
2010/12/23	16:25:38	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	16:25:38	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/23	23:07:51	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/23	23:07:53	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:07:55	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:07:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:07:59	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:08:01	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:08:03	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/23	23:08:05	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:08:06	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:08:15	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:26:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:26:24	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:26:25	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:26:27	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:26:28	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/23	23:26:29	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:26:31	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:26:32	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:26:34	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/23	23:26:35	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/23	23:39:23	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/23	23:39:24	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:39:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:39:26	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:39:27	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:39:28	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:39:29	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:39:30	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:39:31	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/23	23:39:33	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:49:18	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:49:19	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:49:20	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/23	23:49:21	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/23	23:49:23	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:49:24	[Fortune Card]	1
2010/12/23	23:49:25	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/23	23:49:26	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/23	23:49:28	[Fortune Card]	20
2010/12/23	23:49:29	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	00:10:48	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	00:10:50	[Fortune Card]	5
2010/12/24	00:10:51	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	00:10:52	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	00:10:53	[Fortune Card]	0.5
2010/12/24	00:10:54	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	00:10:55	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	00:10:56	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	00:10:57	[Fortune Card]	0.1
2010/12/24	00:10:58	[Fortune Card]	0.5

A Little Introduction...

2010-12-24T11:02:00.000-08:00

[Mysterious Fortune Card] is in essence a lottery ticket. World of Warcraft version of Powerball,

When used in game, it randomly turns into an item that can be sold to vendors for 10 silver to 5000 gold. Yes, that's right. 5000 gold.

Of course, you won't always get the 5k gold. Here's the list of items that it can turn into: wowhead search.

And... unlike, say, Powerball or Mega Millions, the odds of winning are not published, as far as I can tell.

So it begins...

2010-12-23T12:21:00.000-08:00

This is my attempt to unravel the secrets of an interesting item in World of Warcraft: Mysterious Fortune Card. Stay tuned for updates revealing detailed statistics on how this item works!